A Strategy for the Indo-Pacific Region

       Since President Obama’s administration, the United States has been attempting to place greater strategic emphasis on the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean region.  The reason is obvious.  China, as the United States’ newest near-peer competitor, has made no secret about its strategic objectives to reunify with Taiwan, monopolize the natural resources of the South China Sea, and undermine American power and influence in the Western Pacific.  

    Unfortunately, the United States has been distracted by crises in Europe (Ukraine) and the middle east, making it difficult, in a resource-constrained environment, to move forward in the Indian Ocean-Pacific Ocean (INDOPAC) region.  Still, under President Biden and his first-rate national security team, progress has been made.  Will it continue in a Trump administration?

    The most important first step was to reorganize the historically important U.S. Pacific Command into the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) by shifting the Indian Ocean and the South Central Asia region from U.S. Central Command (where it was considered as an afterthought) to the new USINDOPACOM.  The United States will continue to assign a four-star admiral to command USINDOPACOM to emphasize the sea-based focus of regional issues.

    As reported in the Washington Post, the United States, through the incumbent USINDOPACOM commander, Admiral Samuel Paparo, has developed a robust strategy to deter China from aggression.  This includes a plan to impede a Chinese seaborne invasion of Taiwan using a variety of unmanned craft while the U.S. Seventh Fleet brings American sea power to bear to stem the Chinese tide.  Meanwhile, the United States is fostering stronger relationships with regional allies, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan, that will enhance their military capabilities while strengthening their commitment to a unified strategy vis a vis China.  Most notable is the trilateral agreement among the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia to provide the Royal Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines and the means to build them.  This will serve as a significant force multiplier available on short notice to counter any Chinese aggression.

      Diplomacy, including frequent and substantive talks between the United States and China directed toward conflict mitigation will be essential to the successful implementation of this strategy.  Writing in the July/August 2024 edition of Foreign Affairs, Odd Arne Westad of Yale University states that the United States should take to heart the historical example of Great Britain and Germany in the years prior to the First World War.  While both nations had seemingly insurmountable differences, it was their failure to attempt to resolve those differences through negotiation that guaranteed war.  Westad states, “Leaders can learn from the past in both positive and negative ways, about what to do and what not to do. But they have to learn the big lessons first, and the most important of all is how to avoid horrendous wars that reduce generations of achievements to rubble.”

      Managing such a complex strategy requires experience and maturity.  President Biden and his national security team are more than up to the task and are already moving forward.  Former President Trump, however, is much less likely to succeed because:

• Trump is inclined to favor authoritarian leaders so he might not support a strategy designed to thwart President Xi’s ambitions.
• Trump is completely transactional in all of his relationships.  It is unlikely that he would be able to remain focused on executing a complex strategy.
• Trump is unlikely to put in the work necessary to get the work required, done.

    The United States has a good strategy for the Indo-Pacific region.  It needs the right leader to execute it.  That is Joe Biden, not Donald Trump.