A Stolen Election

 

      Make no mistake, Donald Trump intends to steal the 2024 Presidential election.  He will do this by exploiting the vulnerabilities of a nation-wide electoral system that embodies fifty different, independent state systems; none of which is truly accountable to any other state or to the federal government.  The irony is that this complex system was designed to protect the republic from tyranny, not undermine it as is being done today.

       The Constitution of the United States was designed to make a stronger federal union more palatable to states with smaller numbers of citizens and large numbers of slaves.  These states believed that their cultures and prosperity, which, in most cases, were bound up in the institution of slavery, would be overwhelmed by the states that were in the process of industrialization and had rapidly growing populations of free citizens.  If political power were left solely in the hands of a majority of the total national population, then the cultures and prosperity of small states would ultimately be overwhelmed and destroyed.

       This risk was mitigated by giving coequal power over several key aspects of the federal system to the states rather than directly to the people.  States with smaller populations would, therefore, have a coequal vote with those with large populations.  States would be represented in the Federal Congress by the Senate while the people would be represented by the House of Representatives.  While the House of Representatives retains greater power over “the purse” by being the only house that can introduce fiscal legislation, concurrence of the Senate is necessary for the passage of any legislation.  Meanwhile, the Senate has sole authority to approve Presidential appointments including judges of the federal courts, ratify treaties, and sit as courts of impeachment of federal judges and executive branch members (including the President).

       The President, himself, is elected not by direct popular vote but by electors appointed by each state according to its own election laws.  With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, the candidate winning the most popular votes is awarded all of a given state's electors.  The state governor certifies the vote of the electors in accordance with laws enacted by the state legislature.  The Presidential election in each state, therefore, is in the hands of the state’s elites and not the voting population.  It is this fact that will allow Trump to overturn the election.

       The Republican Party, completely under Trump’s control, is even now ensuring the placement of men and women who subscribe to the former President’s election denial obsession into government positions key to certifying national elections at the local and state levels.  All these Trump-supporting officials need do, if Trump loses, is refuse to certify the voting they oversee.  If the governor cooperates, the outcome of the election can be delayed pending court challenges.

      The governor might also be persuaded to certify an alternate set of electors favorable to Trump.  Either way, the issue will likely end up at the Supreme Court which has already shown a bias toward Trump.  An alternative outcome would be that the election would fall to the House of Representatives, which voting by state would elect the President.  Since twenty-six states are held by Republicans, it is likely Trump would be elected by the House of Representatives, regardless of which party holds the largest number of seats.

      Given the Constitution’s built-in bias toward state power, the federal government can do little legally to stop Trump and his ilk from undermining the election.  This was true during the last major effort to nullify the power of the federal government, the succession crisis of 1860-1861.  Jefferson Davis, in his Civil War memoir The Rise and Fall of the Confederate Government, made a convincing argument that succession was Constitutional and, therefore, lawful.  No one in the Union ever made a convincing counterargument, relying on force of arms to restore the Union.   Essentially, might made right.

      Like President Lincoln, President Biden may soon be forced to decide how far he will go to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution against the very real threat of Trump undermining the election.  We do not want him to make that decision.  We can help him avoid it by remaining vigilant, protesting peacefully, and voting regardless of the obstacles.